AUTHOR=Lux Slawomir A. , Wnuk Andrzej , Vogt Heidrun , Belien Tim , Spornberger Andreas , Studnicki Marcin TITLE=Validation of Individual-Based Markov-Like Stochastic Process Model of Insect Behavior and a “Virtual Farm” Concept for Enhancement of Site-Specific IPM JOURNAL=Frontiers in Physiology VOLUME=7 YEAR=2016 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/physiology/articles/10.3389/fphys.2016.00363 DOI=10.3389/fphys.2016.00363 ISSN=1664-042X ABSTRACT=

The paper reports application of a Markov-like stochastic process agent-based model and a “virtual farm” concept for enhancement of site-specific Integrated Pest Management. Conceptually, the model represents a “bottom-up ethological” approach and emulates behavior of the “primary IPM actors”—large cohorts of individual insects—within seasonally changing mosaics of spatiotemporally complex faming landscape, under the challenge of the local IPM actions. Algorithms of the proprietary PESTonFARM model were adjusted to reflect behavior and ecology of R. cerasi. Model parametrization was based on compiled published information about R. cerasi and the results of auxiliary on-farm experiments. The experiments were conducted on sweet cherry farms located in Austria, Germany, and Belgium. For each farm, a customized model-module was prepared, reflecting its spatiotemporal features. Historical data about pest monitoring, IPM treatments and fruit infestation were used to specify the model assumptions and calibrate it further. Finally, for each of the farms, virtual IPM experiments were simulated and the model-generated results were compared with the results of the real experiments conducted on the same farms. Implications of the findings for broader applicability of the model and the “virtual farm” approach—were discussed.